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By Ray McGovern and Robert Scheer / Original to ScheerPost
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Welcome to another compelling edition of the Bob and Ray Show, where insightful journalism meets deep expertise. I’m your host, Robert Scheer, joined by Ray McGovern, a former CIA analyst with a rich background in Russian affairs. With 27 years at the CIA and a knowledge base that spans decades, Ray is uniquely positioned to dissect the intricacies of international relations, particularly concerning Russia and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
In today’s episode, we delve into the recent Alaska summit, a meeting many pundits dismissed as inconsequential, labeling it a “nothing burger.” But as we’ll discuss, both President Trump and President Putin emerged from the summit with differing takes, raising critical questions about the shifting power dynamics on the global stage. Trump proclaimed the discussions a success, while Putin appeared to reinforce his position of strength, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict.
As we explore this topic, we’ll reflect on the changing landscape of power relations, the implications of Trump’s negotiating stance, and the broader ramifications for U.S. foreign policy. Join us as we unpack these complex issues, challenge prevailing narratives, and consider what this means for the future of international diplomacy and the Ukrainian people caught in the crossfire.
Transcript
[00:00] Robert Scheer:
Hi, this is Robert Scheer with another edition of the Ray and Bob or the Bob and Ray show. Ray McGovern, Bob Scheer. I’m the journalist. I’ve been at this for a long time. Ray was actually one of the top Russia and Soviet experts at the CIA. He was at the CIA for 27 years and was in Army intelligence before that.
[00:22] Robert Scheer:
Ray recently returned from Russia, where he spoke at a forum that Putin also attended and was quoted by TASS today. He has a strong international reputation for his insights into Russian affairs and the Ukraine war. Today, we’re going to discuss the Alaska summit.
[00:45] Robert Scheer:
I wanted to reach out to Ray now because I was quite irritated after watching CNN, where they had a panel of 12 people, including Bolton and Fareed Zakaria, who all claimed to understand global affairs. They dismissed the Alaska summit as a “nothing burger.” They said Putin got some photo ops and red carpet treatment, but that Trump was essentially boxed out.
[01:14] Robert Scheer:
I didn’t see it that way, especially after listening to Trump himself on Fox News with Hannity before he boarded the plane. He described the conversation as a “10” and a great success. He indicated that he accepted Putin’s view that a ceasefire wouldn’t make sense right now.
[01:37] Robert Scheer:
Putin is speaking from a position of strength. The war is going well from his perspective. So, I want to turn to Ray. I believe it wasn’t a nothing burger; it signifies a recognition that power relations have changed in the world.
[01:50] Robert Scheer:
I remember you told me early in our discussions, “Hey, Bob, it’s like when we were kids in the Bronx, and there’s a guy on the street corner talking to a big bully. The guy can push him around, but he knows he has his brother backing him up.” Now, it’s different; Russia has China.
[02:10] Robert Scheer:
You can’t just tell China they can’t buy oil from Russia without jeopardizing trade deals. So, Ray, I’ll turn it over to you. I’m not the president; you’ve briefed presidents like Reagan and Nixon.
[02:28] Ray McGovern:
Thanks for mentioning that TASS had a whole article on my views of what happened yesterday. I was going to brag about finally getting back into mainstream media after eight or nine years, but you’re going to ask me whether it was Reuters or ABC. No, it was TASS, the Russian news agency.
[02:55] Ray McGovern:
They called me up for a comment, and it ended up being about what had already happened by that time. What happened was that Putin had warned about excessive expectations a week ago.
[03:20] Ray McGovern:
He said, “Be careful. We’re going to discuss Ukraine, but don’t have excessive expectations.” And wouldn’t you know it, President Trump had excessive expectations based on his persuasive abilities.
[03:36] Ray McGovern:
On the plane to Anchorage, he told a Fox News reporter that he would be very disappointed if they didn’t come up with some kind of agreement regarding a ceasefire.
[03:59] Ray McGovern:
They spent three hours together. When asked about a ceasefire, Putin said no. Trump had inflated expectations, and Putin turned him down.
[05:06] Ray McGovern:
It became clear that Trump no longer thought a ceasefire was absolutely necessary as the first step. Just two weeks ago, Kiev and its European allies insisted that meaningful peace talks could only begin after a ceasefire.
[05:40] Ray McGovern:
Trump likely told Putin, “Leave it to me. I may have to give something to old Vlad, but I’ll get you a ceasefire.” And he failed miserably.
[06:02] Ray McGovern:
Now, he’s saying a ceasefire shouldn’t be a sticking point; instead, they’re going for a peace agreement directly—without a ceasefire. That’s a big shift.
[06:13] Ray McGovern:
Next up, Zelensky is coming to the Oval Office. We remember how J.D. Vance lit into him last time.
[06:25] Ray McGovern:
Vance is going to tell him that we’re done supplying arms or money to Ukraine. If the Europeans want to do that, let them.
[06:59] Ray McGovern:
Zelensky is going to face a tough reality. Russia has already won on the battlefield.
[07:22] Ray McGovern:
As President Obama stated back in 2015, it would be foolish to give Ukrainians the idea that they could prevail against a Russia that is so much larger and better armed right on their border.
[08:38] Ray McGovern:
This is Biden’s war. And Trump has a way to deflect criticism. The truth is, the Ukrainians and the West have lost. Trump wants a negotiated settlement to put a favorable spin on this defeat.
[09:30] Ray McGovern:
He says he wants to stop the killing, which is something he often repeats.
[09:53] Robert Scheer:
Let’s push back a bit. You’re making it sound like a football game. We’re talking about people’s aspirations for freedom—whether they are Ukrainian or Russian-speaking individuals in Ukraine.
[10:24] Robert Scheer:
This isn’t just a matter of power; it’s about national identities and the pain involved. Trump often brings up the killing and the war’s ramifications.
[10:40] Robert Scheer:
He claims that if he were president, this war wouldn’t have happened. He argues that it was not a necessary war and that there was an understanding that could have prevented it.
[11:21] Robert Scheer:
Now we have to negotiate an agreement that acknowledges this reality. This is similar to what happened during the Vietnam War negotiations.
[11:37] Robert Scheer:
This was a war of choice, and we must recognize the historical context that led to this situation.
[12:10] Robert Scheer:
Trump is suggesting this is the best deal available. If Zelensky doesn’t accept it, it becomes the Europeans’ war.
[12:40] Robert Scheer:
Zelensky has indicated he wants to do what’s best for the Ukrainian people. If he truly means that, a quick understanding will be necessary.
[13:07] Robert Scheer:
This is not a nothing burger; it signifies a shift in how we conduct foreign policy. Many neocons can’t accept it.
[13:30] Robert Scheer:
If they can end this war, even with compromises, it could be seen as a success for Trump and Putin.
[14:05] Ray McGovern:
Both leaders are saying this is a step toward resolution. But let’s be honest: Obama refused to give Ukraine offensive weaponry, while Trump provided Javelins and bragged about it.
[14:38] Ray McGovern:
Trump came in hoping for a ceasefire, but Putin made it clear that was not in the cards.
[15:03] Ray McGovern:
Now, Trump is saying they’re not going for just a ceasefire; they’re aiming for a peace agreement.
[15:19] Ray McGovern:
Zelensky is going to face tough scrutiny in the Oval Office.
[15:45] Ray McGovern:
Zelensky will likely be under pressure since people in Ukraine are not willing to sacrifice themselves for this war.
[16:35] Ray McGovern:
The Europeans have convinced him they can come in and help, which is unrealistic. They don’t have the resources or weaponry.
[17:17] Ray McGovern:
Unless Zelensky recognizes the reality, he may resist negotiations with inflated expectations.
[18:16] Robert Scheer:
I’m curious to know if Trump is showing seriousness about where power lies globally.
[19:03] Robert Scheer:
He points out the disparities between Russia and China and how U.S. policy has pushed them together.
[19:36] Robert Scheer:
Despite different ideologies, Russia and China are getting along better now.
[20:31] Robert Scheer:
Trump believes he can work with these countries regardless of their ideologies to create a deal that benefits America.
[21:30] Robert Scheer:
I see this as a significant shift in global relations, marking the end of the old Cold War.
[22:20] Ray McGovern:
I agree; it’s a tectonic shift. We’re witnessing a balance of power change with Russia and China against the U.S.
[23:01] Ray McGovern:
The last face-to-face summit was in June 2021. Biden was confident, but this current situation is different.
[23:32] Ray McGovern:
Biden seemed unaware of the threat posed by China to Russia, and now it’s clear they are aligned against the U.S.
[25:38] Ray McGovern:
Now, Trump is trying to navigate a very complex situation, hoping to stop the killing in Ukraine.
[29:01] Ray McGovern:
Putin doesn’t want to push too far; he only seeks a buffer zone. There’s room for negotiation if handled wisely.
[30:40] Ray McGovern:
Putin wants a resolution that allows him to save face without demanding unconditional surrender.
[31:41] Robert Scheer:
Thank you, Ray, for your insights. I appreciate the time you’ve taken, and it’s always enlightening to have these discussions.
[32:50] Robert Scheer:
This wraps up this edition of the Ray and Bob Show. We’ll be back next week. Thanks to our producer, Max Jones, and everyone involved in bringing this show together.
[32:53] Ray McGovern:
Thanks, Bob.
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Ray McGovern
Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. His 27 years as a C.I.A. analyst included leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch and conducting the morning briefings of the President’s Daily Brief. In retirement he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).
Robert Scheer
Robert Scheer, publisher of ScheerPost and award-winning journalist and author of a dozen books, has a reputation for strong social and political writing over his nearly 60 years as a journalist. His award-winning journalism has appeared in publications nationwide—he was Vietnam correspondent and editor of Ramparts magazine, national correspondent and columnist for the Los Angeles Times—and his in-depth interviews with Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Mikhail Gorbachev and others made headlines. He co-hosted KCRW’s political program Left, Right and Center and now hosts Scheer Intelligence, an independent ScheerPost podcast with people who discuss the day’s most important issues.