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By Juan Cole for Informed Comment Blog
A new opinion poll in Israel, published in Ma’ariv, is summarized in al-Balad. It shows that if Israel has early elections, the currently dominant right wing coalition would fall from holding roughly 61 seats in the 120-member Israeli parliament or Knesset to only 50.
Likud is projected to lose 3 of its 28 seats, falling to only 25.
Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party might not reach the threshold of 3.25% of the vote needed to be seated in parliament.
On the other hand, the even more extremist Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) Party, led by Minister of National Security Itimar Ben-Gevir, would increase its share of seats to 9.
At the moment, Religious Zionism and Jewish Power are in coalition, and they attempt to hold Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hostage, since they are the margin of his majority in the Knesset. In parliamentary systems, prime ministers whose supporters hold less than 50 percent of the seats are in danger of losing office via a “vote of no confidence,” where a majority of parliamentarians refuse to support some policy of the PM, forcing the leader out. Without his extremist allies, Netanyahu would be in danger of falling from office. He therefore has often shown a willingness to adopt extremist positions under this pressure.
At the same time, the opposition parties would win 60 seats, even without the 10 seats that would likely be won by Palestinian-Israeli (“Arab”) parties. I use the term Palestinian-Israeli on the model of “Italian-American,” to underline that these are not generic “Arabs” but feel a kinship with their fellow Palestinians across the Green Line.
Palestinian-Israelis make up 21% of the Israeli population and provide half of doctors and nurses, and so should actually have 24 seats in parliament if they were proportionally represented.
Two opposition figures saw their stars rise in the poll. Naftali Bennett’s New Right Party could win as many as 22 seats. The Likud has allied with the extreme right parties in the fascist tradition of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach Party is branded by the US a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity, and many of its cabinet members and members of parliament have moved in an extremist direction. That change has opened up a space for a more traditional center-right party like the New Right, which advertises itself as open to both secular and religious people.
Bennett served as prime minister 2021-2022 and is positioning himself to make a comeback.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former general, has moved to the new Yashar! (Straight! or Honest!) Party, breaking with Benny Gantz and his National Unity Party. Yashar! might gain as many as 10 seats in the next election according to this opinion poll. Eisenkot suggested going into coalition with Palestinian-Israeli parties, which raised a firestorm of controversy. But Bennett had done that during his prime ministership.
This mood change shows a weariness with Netanyahu and his far right policies. Tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrated in Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities on Saturday, protesting Netanyahu. Haaretz says that “The main rallies took place in Tel Aviv’s Habima Square and Haifa’s Horev Center.”
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In what seems to me a positive sign (and there haven’t been many in that part of the world lately), one of the things being protested was the lack of security for Palestinian-Israelis. Hundreds of Israeli protesters rallied in support of residents of Jaffa, where a Palestinian-Israeli family was assaulted last week.
Speakers lambasted Jewish Power and Religious Zionism for preaching hatred and instigating attacks on Palestinian-Israelis. It is common for the latter to be bus drivers, but speaker Soumaya Bashir said that they face attacks and harassment from the Israeli far right. Haaretz reports that the crowd chanted back, “You are not alone, we are with you. Jews and Arabs refuse to be enemies.”
Israeli elections must be held by next October 27, but could be called before then. Whenever the elections are held, it may well be that the extremists will fall from office. Since Netanyahu’s main opponents are only a little further to the center than he, it would not result in an enormous change, but there is a difference between a cabinet with Kahanists in it and a center-right cabinet. And if Eisenkot’s suggestion that Arab parties be brought in to the next Israeli government is taken up, that would be a small step away from Apartheid.
Juan Cole
Juan Cole, a TomDispatch regular, is the Richard P. Mitchell collegiate professor of history at the University of Michigan. He is the author of The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam: A New Translation From the Persian and Muhammad: Prophet of Peace Amid the Clash of Empires. His latest book is Peace Movements in Islam. His award-winning blog is Informed Comment. He is also a non-resident Fellow of the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies in Doha and of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN).
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