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Posted by Joshua Scheer
In this powerful analysis from Geopolitical Economy Report, editor-in-chief Ben Norton examines what many in Washington now openly call a “Second Cold War” — a sweeping U.S. campaign to contain China economically, technologically, and geopolitically.
From Marco Rubio declaring China the most formidable adversary the United States has ever faced, to bipartisan tariff escalation under Donald Trump and Joe Biden, this episode traces how Cold War 2 has moved far beyond rhetoric. It now encompasses trade wars, semiconductor restrictions, AI competition, critical mineral stockpiles, oil chokepoints, and a new U.S.-led supply chain bloc designed to weaken Beijing’s global leverage.
Norton unpacks the battle over rare earths and advanced chips, the effort to relocate manufacturing from China to allies like India, and the growing role of Silicon Valley billionaires in shaping U.S. foreign policy. He also explores how energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca factor into Washington’s strategy to pressure Beijing through its oil supply lines.
At the center of the struggle is artificial intelligence — what Trump officials describe as an “AI arms race” — with figures tied to the PayPal Mafia and Big Tech pushing for U.S. dominance over the global technology stack.
But will the rest of the world fall in line? With major powers like India balancing between Washington and Beijing, and much of the Global South resisting alignment, the outcome remains uncertain.
Highlights From the Show
1. Washington openly acknowledges a Second Cold War with China
“The United States is waging a new cold war against China… This is openly discussed today in Washington.” Marco Rubio calls China “the most potent and dangerous near‑peer adversary this nation has ever confronted.”
2. The trade war failed — and China held the leverage
“Even the New York Times said very clearly Trump lost the trade war to China.” China retaliated by restricting rare earth exports — a sector where it controls nearly 90% of global processing.
3. The tech war is explicit U.S. policy
Biden’s Commerce Secretary: the goal is “to slow down China’s rate of innovation.” Both administrations imposed sweeping chip export bans to block China’s AI development.
4. Silicon Valley oligarchs are shaping U.S. foreign policy
Jacob Helberg — a MAGA influencer married to a PayPal‑mafia VC — now oversees U.S. economic statecraft. “Their marriage ceremony was officiated by… Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI.” These billionaires see China as the only force blocking their global tech monopolies.
5. Pax Silica: a U.S.-led attempt to rebuild the global supply chain without China
The State Department frames it as securing “compute and the minerals that feed it.” Only about a dozen countries actually joined — despite 54 attending.
6. India is the key swing state in Cold War 2
India joined Pax Silica to attract supply‑chain relocation and build its own AI sector. “India wants to be the heart of this new supply chain the US hopes to create.”
7. Energy chokepoints are central to U.S. strategy
China relies heavily on Iranian oil — over 80% of Iran’s exports. The U.S. positions warships near the Strait of Hormuz, “the single most important oil transit choke point on Earth.”
8. The Global South is not lining up behind Washington
Most countries at the minerals summit refused to join Pax Silica. “Most countries are not going to ally with the US against China.”
9. The U.S. is increasingly isolated — despite the PR victories
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