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Lenin’s refrain that “there are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen” is overused because it’s true.
And I have a feeling this week is one of those weeks.
The empire has moved a huge amount of its death machine to the Middle East and whichever decision the Epstein regime alights upon has a good chance of upending the world.
And with any luck, it will.
The truth is, we could do with a little more blowback.
Because whether Afghanistan, Iraq, or more recently Venezuela, we’ve got used to the idea that imperial violence doesn’t really affect our lives, not directly.
These wars might sprout a bit of terrorism, but in the grand scheme of things, as citizens of the imperial core, we’re largely insulated from the consequences of empire’s bloodthirsty proclivities.
But this time, if the US goes ahead with an assault on Iran, it will be different.
Iran is not Iraq, Afghanistan or Venezuela.
Iran showed that last June by hitting military targets across Israel, including sites in Tel Aviv. This time, every American military base in the region will be a target. Every Israeli military base and city will be a target.
The likelihood of a regional war, should the US pull the trigger, is extremely high.
And who knows what Iranian strikes against US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE or even Egypt might do to their internal politics.
These countries are dictatorships. They haven’t been forged through revolutionary processes. There are no anti-imperial revolutions to defend. On the contrary, much of the Arab world has become a staging post for imperialism. Iranian strikes could well trigger civil unrest among populations who harbour no love for the lackeys and servants of empire who rule over them. And in the case of Qatar and the UAE, 90% of the population are foreigners. These are entities forged through neoliberal capitalism and US hegemony. Not revolution. A prolonged war would see huge flight out of those countries, triggering economic collapse.
Should the US attack, Iran will also use its navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world’s oil flows. Oil prices will spike, inflation will follow, the global economy will slump.
War with Iran will hit us in our pockets in a way that other wars haven’t.
As the global economy rocks, the US will try and bomb the Iranian navy out of position, from air and at sea.
But again, Iran is not Iraq, Afghanistan or Venezuela.
Iran has squadrons of fighter jets and heavy bombers. It has a fleet of attack submarines, fast attack crafts, warships, and minehunters.
It would be war. Real war.
Not Iraq, where a demoralised, disloyal, ill-equipped military mostly stayed at home. Not Afghanistan, where an invasion succeeded through collaboration with the Northern Alliance. Not Venezuela, where a smash-and-grab raid against a military weakling was easily achieved.
And unlike these examples, there is no new government waiting in the wings, either in exile or in Iran. Iran’s government is not going to collapse at the tip of a Tomahawk missile. If it was that weak, it would have collapsed during the riots, as the US and Israel had planned. It didn’t. On the contrary, millions lined the streets in the aftermath to demonstrate support for their government. A US attack will only galvanise Iranians further in support of their leaders.
Once war has begun, escalation will be inevitable.
Iran will keep firing missiles, hitting Israel, US targets and economic infrastructure in the region, including oil refineries.
The US will keep bombing, but without any real outcome in mind.
But there’s only so much you can do from the air. You can wreck infrastructure, immiserate a population, but you can’t do regime change from 10,000 feet.
Under these conditions, the pressure would be on the US to escalate further, to change the plan, clarify the objective. Under these conditions, the US may feel compelled to send ground troops to effect regime change.
Israel will demand it.
And this is where it could get out of control.
China buys 90% of Iran’s oil and has deepened military ties in recent years, supplying the country with fighter jets, drones, radars and air defense tech.
Iran and its oil under de facto US control would be a dangerous weapon against China. China then is strongly motivated to make sure the republic doesn’t fall.
At the same time, the Israeli regime knows this is their one chance to fulfil their decades-long dream of regional domination.
There won’t be another build-up of US military power like this again in years. Certainly not under Trump. He’s not going to call this off, fly everything back, and do it all again in a few months.
For the Israelis, this is it. Now or never.
This is all a highly combustible mix, and makes the situation extraordinarily dangerous.
Despite the death, destruction and global fallout it would entail, the odds remain good that the US will attack Iran.
Israel wants it, Iran will not concede to give up its sovereignty by scrapping its non-nuclear missile programme, and Trump, having committed all this hardware, won’t want to be seen to back down.
But it hasn’t happened yet.
And if it doesn’t happen, this would also be a profound outcome that will change the world for years.
If the US doesn’t attack, if instead we get a deal on uranium enrichment, Trump will declare it a great victory for his strategy of brinksmanship.
But Iran will have won.
Because as part of that deal, there will be sanctions relief.
And there will be no limits on Iran’s missile programme.
The threat of war will pass, in the short-term at least.
The Palestinian resistance, and the broader resistance to Zionism in the region, will see its source of material support strengthened.
Israel will be weakened vis-a-vis Iran. The Zionist lobby will fume and Israel’s relationship with the Trump administration may change. A scorned Israel will lash out, maybe even against the US. The relationship could harden.
No war and a tokenistic deal could also change the dynamics over Gaza, over the West Bank and over Lebanon.
Israel, as the bully it is, will almost certainly lash out militarily at the Palestinians and the Lebanese who will become immediate casualties of any deal.
But in the longer term, Iran’s re-assertion as a major regional player would create a wider range of future possibilities for the Palestinians.
Whatever happens, this is a week that will decide years.
My advice for the short term? Fill your car up with fuel and do the big shop before the end of the week.
But we can’t go on like this.
We can’t go on watching our leaders threaten to do mass murder, or actually do mass murder, every few years to get what they want.
If this war happens, and if we do feel it in our daily lives, it would be the costs of imperialism coming home. Costs which one could easily argue would be well-deserved.
Which brings me to my advice for the long term: organise, strategise and revolt to overthrow the Epstein class, powered by the knowledge that all empires eventually end.
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