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Retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson is not known for understatement, but his latest warning may be among his starkest yet: if the current war trajectory continues, Israel could face existential collapse, Iran may emerge as a nuclear threshold state, and the United States could stumble toward a confrontation whose consequences reach far beyond the Middle East.
In a sweeping interview with Glenn Diesen, Wilkerson — former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell — describes a U.S. policy apparatus he sees as improvising under pressure, escalating militarily without a coherent strategic objective, while global economic choke points tighten under the strain of war. His warning is not simply about battlefield dynamics, but about how quickly regional conflict can trigger systemic breakdown: energy markets, shipping lanes, global supply chains, and nuclear deterrence itself.
Wilkerson argues that Washington’s current posture toward Iran risks producing the very outcome it claims to prevent — a hardened Iranian nuclear deterrent — while increasing the possibility that a cornered Israel could contemplate catastrophic escalation. He also points to the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that prolonged disruption there could deepen recession into global depression.
“The world economy is being disturbed in profound ways right now that it might not recover from for years,” Wilkerson says, pointing to thousands of ships stalled outside Hormuz, rising fuel costs, and industrial supply chains already under pressure. He notes that critical commodities — from oil to helium used in advanced semiconductor production — move through maritime routes now exposed to military escalation. In his assessment, the danger is not confined to one war zone: “We are already in recession,” he says, warning that a wider economic collapse could follow if the conflict expands or maritime traffic remains constrained.
Most strikingly, Wilkerson warns that the political logic of escalation may now be overtaking diplomacy altogether. “Israel is going to disappear as a Jewish state in the Levant,” he says, blaming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for driving the region toward a point where military overstretch, internal strain, and strategic isolation converge. He also raises what he calls the gravest possibility: that if Iranian nuclear capability becomes undeniable and Israel feels strategically cornered, nuclear weapons could enter the equation. “We’re entering an entirely new dimension,” he says, one in which conventional war, economic collapse, and nuclear brinkmanship are no longer separate scenarios but overlapping risks.
The interview is blunt, often incendiary, and at times speculative. But beneath the dramatic language lies a familiar Wilkerson theme: military force detached from diplomatic realism can push great powers into crises they no longer control.
At a moment when official rhetoric remains saturated with certainty, Wilkerson offers something closer to alarm — a portrait of leaders, alliances, and war planning operating dangerously close to the edge.
Glenn Diesen is a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway (USN), and Associate Editor at Russia in Global Affairs. Diesen’s research focus is geoeconomics, conservatism, Russian foreign policy & Greater Eurasia. For more videos and his work here.
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