Scott Corey Informed Comment
For many years now, Israel has been in the anomalous position of being a US aligned country with a Moscow aligned leader. Mr. Netanyahu has, at times, even featured his friendship with Vladimir Putin in his political campaigns. Today, the Israeli Prime Minister is being pulled into Mr. Trump’s orbit at the same time that the global autocratic project is being shaken by popular resistance, amplifying the importance of elections in the US and Israel in the next few weeks.
Mr. Trump has well honored his debts to Mr. Putin, but now seeks to exceed the master by carving out a larger chunk of the world for himself. By slashing US human intelligence conduits and cutting Ukraine off from funds and weapons, Mr. Trump has repaid the Russian money that saved his business career as well as the Russian bot networks so valuable in his political rise and survival. Since his reelection, though, he has vied with Mr. Putin for leadership of the global autocratic wave, first shifting Venezuela from a Moscow controlled dictatorship to a Washinton controlled dictatorship. Israel is a bigger prize, being more powerful and adjacent to Middle East oil. Overtly, the US is just catering to its longtime ally, but the otherwise inexplicable war on Iran makes perfect sense as a favor to keep Mr. Netanyahu in power and out of jail. Mr. Trump has been reliably quoted as confirming this dynamic.
However, there is trouble in the dictatorial landscape. In the 21st Century model of authoritarianism, voting is steadily diminished to the status of an impotent popularity poll. That process can falter before it solidifies. Romania and Hungary have overcome huge perversions of democratic norms to evict their respective oppressors from office (though Romania has struggled to form a new government, US ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle is quoted as suggesting that US interference is causing that instability). India is feeling a surge of discontent against Mr. Modi, again centering on defense of democratic process. In Nicaragua, elections have been cancelled outright, as Daniel Ortega appears to seek refuge in a more 20th Century style dictatorship.
At the same time, the perpetual war gambit is not working out so well for either Mr. Trump or Mr. Netanyahu. Spillover attacks are wounding US oil allies, and constricted oil supplies are raising voter dissatisfaction over consumer prices. Domestic damage control includes hurting ranchers with a sudden suspension of beef tariffs, and disgusting many by purchasing Russian diesel fuel. For Mr. Netanyahu, the hope of closer relations with Arab neighbors is receding. A fraternity of US, Israeli, and Saudi autocrats seemed within reach and, with that, much easier maintenance of Israeli security, and unity against Iran. However, Iran and its associates have found ways to make the entire neighborhood suffer for a war that has no rational goal except to prop up one authoritarian and make him grateful to another. Within Israel, the consensus for harsh treatment of Palestinians has grown and hardened, but dissatisfaction with Mr. Netanyahu’s corruption and manipulation remains.
No likely outcome of the impending Israeli election will yield a generous policy toward Palestinians. Seen as an opportunity for a showdown with autocracy, the voting still matters greatly for all concerned. Israel does not need a steady diet of blood the way its autocrat does. Mr. Netanyahu is a “one trick pony” riding hard to nowhere. Security is broad goal, not tied to any particular method or intensity. Israel has a chance to choose.
Photo via White House Executive Office. Public Domain. Courtesy Picryl
So does the US. If the voters return a Republican Congress, Mr. Trump will get to use the US Postal Service to filter out votes to assure his own success. The Supreme Court might delay that, but new laws by a subservient legislature would give it an excuse to betray democracy. Again, the voters have a chance, maybe their last for a long while, to escape the authoritarian shadow.
Juan Cole’s Informed Comment delivers independent, expert analysis of war, the Middle East, climate change, and U.S. foreign policy. Help sustain this work
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