Nate Bear Do Not Panic
The chorus of giddy celebration from the electoral left in the USA and across the west shows no signs of abating, so I thought it would be fun to indulge it.
Rather than argue what won’t happen, based on my understanding of imperialism, capitalism and empire, I thought it would be good to look at what should, and, importantly could, happen.
And I’m going to focus on US foreign policy because this is what I care about, is the issue (with respect to the impact of the Iran war) that has largely animated these elections, and is the area of US policy that determines who lives or gets genocided around the world.
This thought experiment is also critical to hold feet to the fire. The critical realists among us are being told by the electoral left, and many in the pro-Palestine movement, that this is the beginning of the end of US neofascism, Zionist violence, pro-Israel influence, and mass imperial death. If this is true, as the rejoicing would appear to indicate, we should anticipate big changes in the coming months.
Firstly it means the Iran war ends. It means the war ends with no demands on Iran to submit to a one-sided imperially-dictated nuclear deal. It means it ends with the US and Israel walking away, lifting sanctions and recognising Iran’s sovereignty. This is the quickest way to fully open the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate the economic pressures stemming from its closure. Democratic control over the House and Senate means they have numerous routes to force Trump to end the war in this way, from a War Powers Resolution to the cutting off of funding for the war. This could also be achieved with new legislation that puts strict conditions on already appropriated war funds. And the Zionist leaders of the House and Senate, Jeffries and Schumer, who have the power to set the legislative agenda, shouldn’t be an obstacle to this, or any other foreign policy shifts. They either fall in line with the fabled progressive new majority, or they get replaced by new leaders drawn from this progressive majority.
No excuses.
And this could all happen quite quickly. By the first day of 2027, this war could be over.
Concurrently, the new majority, which I’m told is against genocide, should be preparing legislation to cut all aid to Israel, flow aid into Gaza, pay for reconstruction, recognise Palestine and stop the war on Lebanon. Why should we expect anything less? Electoralism is the route to the end of Israeli violence, and the dawning of Palestinian liberation we’ve been told. So now it’s time for them to deliver. No excuses. And they have numerous routes to achieve this. Congress could prohibit funding in the annual defence and foreign assistance appropriations bill, they could use the human rights provisions under the Foreign Assistance Act to stop aid to Israel, or they could block arms sales under the Arms Export Control Act. New laws could even be passed which amend existing agreements and already appropriated funds.
Israel kills primarily with American F-15s, F-16s and F-35s. Without these, they can’t kill nearly as efficiently, and maybe hardly at all. Israel’s stockpile is classified, but if the US weapons dried up, they’d be eating into limited resources, and would be reluctant to do so for long. By mid-2027 then, let’s say, the Democrats could ensure that no Palestinian or Lebanese is again murdered by the genocidal Zionist regime.
Given the power of Congress to fund and defund, this new progressive majority should, if the hype I’m hearing stands up, also be allocating billions to the reconstruction of Gaza. By the end of 2027, the first residential buildings, schools and hospitals will be housing families, teaching children and treating the sick.
By the end of 2027, the new progressive majority in the US has swept away the obstacles to the execution of the ICC warrants, and Netanyahu and Gallant are in The Hague. The new Congress forces Trump to remove sanctions his regime imposed on ICC leaders, and the ICC is restored as the global body for the enforcement of international law. Israel, its primary sponsor gone, is teetering on the brink of civil war by this time next year.
By the end of 2028, half of all Palestinians in Gaza have a home, with an international effort led by the US having set out a ten-year plan to reconstruct the entire territory. The US is also helping fund the reconstruction of Southern Lebanon, with a special UN body examining how best to extract reparations from Israel.
By the end of 2028, a separate UN body made up of experts from across the world, led by Palestinian jurists and academics, is examining both the future of Israel as a Jewish supremacist ethnostate, and the mechanisms through which an independent Palestinian state will be established. With the power of the Zionists in serious retreat and Trump a lame duck president, the Congress has empowered this body with the resources and political legitimacy it needs to do its job. The timetable for the establishment of a Palestinian state is set at 2030.
As I detailed in my last article, only one Democrat who wants to abolish Israel has been elected. I think that’s the bare minimum we should demand personally, but I acknowledge that won’t happen under liberal electoralism. However, while the promise of these elections falls short of that goal, everything else I’ve outlined is eminently achievable. In fact it’s not just achievable, but has essentially been promised by all those touting these results as a corrective to Zionism, Trump and imperial genocide.
So when you hear the pro-Palestine electoral left enthusing over these results, and chiding you for your pessimism, set these outcomes as the bar.
Ask them why we should demand anything less after everything we’ve seen, and everything the Democrats have done, or refused to do.
Hold them to these outcomes.
Tell them it is infantile to celebrate Democrats winning as an outcome. It’s not. Acknowledge that it could be a means to an end, and although history suggests otherwise, now is the chance to prove us wrong.
But if these ends don’t materialise, never let them forget it.