Juan Cole Informed Comment
China Daily reports from Mobility Global that in the first half of 2026, gasoline-only automobiles accounted for less than half, 49%, of new car sales throughout the world. Zhou Shuchun points out that while the early Model T had competition from electric and steam-driven cars, since the internal combustion engine became dominant in the 1920s, this is the first time its sales have fallen to less than half the market. The New Energy Vehicles that accounted for the majority of new registrations include hybrids, so that is why I say “gasoline-only.”
The 49% statistic is a global average, of course. In China, New Energy Vehicles now account for about two-thirds of new car sales. There, gasoline-fueled vehicles are clearly on their way out, though it will take time to replace the ones already on the road. But 10% of cars in use in China are already New Energy Vehicles, which saves that country around 1.5 million barrels a day in oil imports.
In 2025, China produced over 16 million New Energy Vehicles. It was ranked number 1 in that field for the eleventh consecutive year. Some 70% of the world’s New Energy Vehicles are manufactured in China, along with 70% of the global production of batteries and key materials, Zhou writes.
China also produces 80% of the world’s PV modules and 70% of its wind turbines.
In H1 ’26, world-wide purchases of gasoline-only vehicles declined 10%, whereas hybrids and battery-electric vehicles saw sales rise 10% and 12% respectively.
This dramatic development was an effect of the Netanyahu-Trump war on Iran and its aftermath.
The increasing electrification of transportation is in line with the theme of the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkiye, as suggested by the host, President Tayyip Erdogan. He urged that the world set a goal of getting 35% of its energy from electricity by 2035, up from about 20% now. Achieving that goal would require many more people to use heat pumps rather than natural gas for winter heating, and to drive EVs rather than gasoline-fueled vehicles.
Of course, if the electricity in the grid is still being produced by fossil fuels like coal and fossil gas, electrification in and of itself won’t help much with reducing carbon emissions, our most essential task for the next 25 years. But Erdogan says he hopes that greater electrification will set us up to plug in renewables over time.
Electrification is good, but California is showing that it can be pursued alongside a vast expansion in wind, water, solar and battery that displaces fossil fuels from the grid. California now uses no coal in-state, and only 23% of in-state electricity was generated in the past year by fossil gas. But 22.5% of California’s electricity is imported from nearby states. Some 75% of the imported electricity is generated by renewables .
Photo by Dragon White Munthe on Unsplash
So less than a third of California’s electricity is dirty. But winter heating, in those parts of the state that need it, is still mostly based on fossil gas.
So California is kind of doing the opposite of what Erdogan suggested, greening their electricity first before switching over to the grid for heating and transportation.
Where Erdogan’s suggestion would be useful is with regard to electrifying transportation.
Only 7.5% of the cars on the road in California are electric (hybrid or battery-electric), and they are only 19% of new car sales.
It would certainly be great if a third of California’s cars were EVs. And if they were, they’d mainly be running on wind and sunshine.
Juan Cole’s Informed Comment delivers independent, expert analysis of war, the Middle East, climate change, and U.S. foreign policy. Help sustain this work
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