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By Carolyn Neugarten / OpenSecrets
The 2026 elections are on track to become the most expensive midterm cycle in U.S. history, driven in large part by huge increases in political advertising.
According to AdImpact’s Political Projections 2025–2026 report, spending on political advertising is estimated to reach $10.8 billion in the next cycle, over 20 percent higher than in 2022. While some of the projected increase can be attributed to rising advertising costs, campaigns are expected to spend funds earlier in the cycle and place a greater reliance on fast-growing media technology such as connected TV, further boosting expenditures.
Fundraising for congressional elections surged in the three most recent elections, ranging from $8.9 billion to $9.5 billion, a significant leap from the $5.7 billion raised in 2018. According to analysis from OpenSecrets, the Wesleyan Media Project, and the Brennan Center, more than $1.9 billion of the $9.5 billion spent in 2024 was dedicated solely to online advertisement.
The AdImpact report also found that independent spending by committees supporting or opposing candidates is starting earlier than in previous midterms, concentrated in a small number of competitive states and districts.
Spending in both Senate and House races will reach record highs in 2026, even as the number of competitive contests continues to decrease. The AdImpact report projects Senate spending will reach $2.8 billion; this figure will beat the Senate spending record set in 2024 and represent a nearly 21 percent increase over 2022. House spending is also reaching new highs at $2.2 billion, crossing the $2 billion mark for the first time in history.
Early spending
Experts say the decision by campaigns to increase ad expenditures early in election cycles is less a strategic choice than a necessity, as candidates race to advertise before being priced out of key media markets.
“Politics today is a much more professionalized and resource-intensive operation than it used to be,” said Travis Trawick, CEO and founder of the political technology firm FullPAC, which offers voter outreach solutions for political campaigns, elected officials, and ballot initiatives. “These organizations are run like corporations; they have data teams, testing programs and sophisticated outreach strategies. Reaching voters in the ways that actually resonate costs more every cycle, and starts earlier every cycle.”
AdImpact found that historically, only 10 percent to 15 percent of total election-cycle spending occurred during non-election years. By August 2025, however, political advertisers had already spent roughly $900 million; this is 33 percent more than the $675 million spent at the same point in 2023 and 58 percent more than the $572 million spent in 2021.
Early fundraising strongly favors incumbents, particularly in Senate races, where challengers struggle to raise meaningful sums in the opening months of an election cycle.
In 2021, Democratic Senate incumbents raised a median of more than $7.3 million, while their challengers raised just $60,242. Republican incumbents raised a median of nearly $2.9 million, compared with $111,100 for challengers. House races showed a similar, though less extreme, pattern: Democratic incumbents raised a median of $826,573, while challengers raised $57,417.
During the first half of 2023, Democratic Senate incumbents raised a median of $4.9 million and Republican incumbents raised $3.3 million, while challengers in both parties raised less than $75,000. Fewer candidates entered races during that period, further concentrating early money among incumbents: The number of Senate challengers fell from 53 to 40, and House challengers from 346 to 205.
Those early advantages carried through the 2024 election year. By the end of the cycle, 25 Senate incumbents had raised more than $780 million combined, averaging about $31 million per candidate, while their challengers raised a total of $378 million, or roughly $2.7 million each.
Final reports for 2025, which will demonstrate whether the trend persisted last year, are due to the FEC on Jan. 31.
Connected TV takes a larger share
One of the most important findings of the AdImpact report is the rise of connected TV (CTV) as a large advertising channel. As more American households move away from traditional broadcast television, campaigns are following voters onto streaming platforms that claim to have more targeted reach and more detailed audience data, according to the AdImpact report.
Though broadcast television will continue to hold the largest share, representing 49 percent of total political ad spending, local cable is predicted to decline in 2026, and previously declined during the presidential race in 2024. Digital spending on platforms like Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X are also projected to fall 2 points, but this is consistent with midterm cycle trends.
Although CTV is expected to be the only media channel to see increased spending compared with the 2024 cycle, it can be prohibitively expensive for lesser-known candidates who raise less funds than high-profile opponents. Many smaller campaigns are seeking out alternatives.
“For smaller campaigns, especially local or first-time candidates, TV just isn’t realistic,” Trawick said. “They can’t afford sustained television or radio buys. Texting and digital outreach are often the only ways they can reach voters at scale.”
Rising expenditures extend to state races
While congressional and presidential races continue to get the most voter attention, spending is also increasing in state-level races. AdImpact estimates that political ad spending on gubernatorial and state legislative contests increased by 50 percent in the 2024 cycle. Seven states (including Florida, Illinois, Michigan and Texas) are expected to see more than $50 million in legislative spending for the 2026 cycle, according to AdImpact’s report.
Increases are being driven partly by high-profile ballot propositions, which have transformed traditionally state-level contests into centers of national attention. California and Florida are estimated to be the largest political ad spenders on state-level races due to ballot propositions. Campaigns surrounding Florida’s 2024 marijuana legalization ballot initiative spent a combined $106 million on advertising with the support campaign, Smart & Safe Florida, spending $95 million. Keep Florida Clean, the opposition campaign, spent $11 million.
“Down-ballot races are surging because we’re in a perpetual redistricting cycle,” said Trawick. “Control of state legislatures and governors’ offices often determines who controls Congress, so the stakes are national even when the race is local. And once you have ultra-wealthy donors engaged on both sides of an issue, the spending doesn’t just rise, it accelerates.”
This article was originally published by OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that tracks money in politics. View the original article.
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