Juan Cole Informed Comment
Globally, sales of battery-electric (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles in the first nine months of 2026 came to 15.5 million units, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as reported by Evdance. That is annual growth, January-September, of 3 percent. The growth comes despite Trump deliberately having engineered a crash in US sales of EVs to make sure his buddies in Big Oil can go on gouging the American consumer at the pump. It also comes despite a dramatic fall in car sales in China, though note that EV sales have fallen by much smaller margins than sales of gasoline cars there.
The clear rush to electric vehicles in Europe and the global South is important because as much as 24% of global annual carbon dioxide emissions come from the transportation sector. If we can green transportation by 2050, we will have accomplished 25% of our task to keep the world from dangerous climate breakdown. Some countries — those with half a brain — are putting in carbon taxes and incentives for EVs for this reason. We in the US are not one of those. But that a potent combination of nationalism, barracuda capitalism, and greed has demonstrated the unreliability of fossil fuels has a silver lining. It is yet another reason to dump them in favor of wind, water, solar and battery power generation. California is showing that the four in concert are cheaper and more reliable than fossil fuels.
So, let us return to our theme. Even with fewer EVs sold, Chinese consumers still bought over a million of them in September, far more than European purchasers, who took home some 600,000. Year-over-year regional comparisons sometimes hide economic strengths that are extraordinary, since China could buy fewer EVs in September ’26 than it did in September ’25, but still buy more than other comparable economies. The European Union’s nominal GDP last year was a little over $21 trillion, while China’s was a little over $19 trillion.
Two-thirds of new car registrations in China are now New Energy vehicles.
Beyond China, EU, and US
For percentage increases in EV registrations, we have to look to the global South (outside Europe, the US and China), where 310,000 EVs were sold in September, an increase over last year of 81%. I.e., EV sales have nearly doubled in those markets. In the first nine months of the year, people there bought 2.3 million new energy vehicles, 93% more than in 2025.
Europe
As I noted at the beginning of this month, Europe is where the action is now for increases in EV purchases by absolute numbers. Europe starts from a lower floor, so China is still buying nearly twice as many electric vehicles in absolute numbers.
In January through September of this year, EV sales grew 30% on an annual basis, amounting to 3.9 million units. But the big driver of growth was battery-electric sales, up 50% this year. In some markets, like France, Germany, and Denmark, the percentage increase for BEVs was even greater.
In fact, 22.7% of new car sales in the EU in January-September were battery-electric, at almost 2 million units. And get this: battery-electric sales alone this year in the EU have outpaced those of gasoline cars! We’re not even getting into plug-in hybrids or traditional hybrids like the Prius.
Several European countries, including Spain, Portugal, Finland, and France, sold more EVs in September than they ever had in history. Outside the EU, Britain was also in that category. In fact, Britons bought 3.5 times more EVs in September than they had in August. Some 40% of new car sales in the UK are now electric.
In September in the EU, 31% of new car sales were battery-electric, a big increase over this year’s average.
Ominously for Volkswagen, Renault, etc., is that the percentage of Chinese cars in the European market rose from 6% in January to 11% in August. The Chinese inexpensive, long-range EVs are clearly attractive now, given the Netanyahu-Trump war on Iran.
Europe also now has 1.2 million charging points, with an 11% increase in AC charging and a 22% increase in DC.
Photo by Hyundai Motor Group on Unsplash
Since neither the Iran War nor the consequent global fuel crisis is by any means over, we can expect to see further price spikes for gasoline and diesel, well into 2027, and further impetus for consumers to switch to EVs. In some markets, this process will be slower than in others, depending on whether the government is smart enough to put in a lot of chargers and to offer incentives to people to wean them off polluting, planet-wrecking, expensive petroleum.
The danger for the United States in falling so far behind in the electrification of transportation is that the world is clearly going in that direction. If we don’t make inexpensive, long-range EVs to rival those of China, then people are going to buy them from China, which could pull the plug on one of the major engines of American industrial superiority. It could be all downhill from there. In which case, start studying Mandarin, kids.
Juan Cole’s Informed Comment delivers independent, expert analysis of war, the Middle East, climate change, and U.S. foreign policy. Help sustain this work
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