By Richard C. Cook / Original to ScheerPost
The U.S. today is facing catastrophe with the leading 2024 election candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties being fatally compromised at a moment when our foreign policy is on the verge of collapse.
I believe that we can assess that President Joe Biden has less than a 25 percent chance of remaining in office until the election only 14 months from now. According to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs poll, 77 percent of respondents, including 69 percent of Democrats, say Biden is too old to run for office again. Further, I would make a 50 percent assessment that Biden will face an impeachment inquiry for his alleged financial crimes within three to six months. These developments could force Biden to step down. But Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have a zero percent chance either of guiding the country to safety abroad or becoming the Democratic Party’s 2024 nominee.
We can further assess that ex-President Donald Trump has less than a 10 percent chance of avoiding prison time. But Trump has no credible Republican opponent ready to step in, with Mike Pence having no support, Ron DeSantis slipping, and Vivek Ramaswamy only a curiosity. The other candidates appear to be running for a VP or cabinet position or just publicity.
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It is clear that despite the relentless propaganda, the U.S. proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is lost, with the failed Ukrainian “spring offensive” meeting its demise due to overwhelming Russian firepower and the futility of Ukraine’s U.S.-ordered suicide charges against impregnable Russian defenses. Biden’s debacle in Ukraine may be added to his humiliating departure from Afghanistan.
The loss of Ukraine will explode the myth of U.S. full-spectrum dominance and discredit NATO. China can only be emboldened. The Russia-China showcase institution of BRICS just doubled in size, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and several other countries becoming full members. The loss of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency is on the way to happening, which will cause the mechanism to disappear by which the U.S. has maintained global military hegemony since World War II. Europe is on the verge of rebellion against U.S. overlordship due to the deindustrialization resulting from the Ukraine war and U.S. culpability in cutting off Europe from Russian energy sources.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Congress, lied when she said eight months ago that Russia’s economy was “in tatters” due to the sanctions imposed over Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Actually, it’s the economies of the EU and U.S. that are in tatters. While EU states decline into recession, led by Germany, the U.S. is on the verge of doing the same with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases and massive government and consumer debt, while young people can’t afford a place to live, a car to drive, or an education.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration and Congress continue to pour billions of dollars into Ukraine as they pressure that unfortunate country into losing hundreds of thousands of lives in a war where the main beneficiaries are the holders of stocks and bonds in the U.S. military-industrial complex. Also profiting are members of Congress, starting at the top, who themselves own stock or receive campaign contributions from rich donors or directly from the weapons suppliers.
Simultaneously, the Deep State in collusion with the Democrats has been exposed in conducting relentless spying on individuals, infiltration of social media, and a massive program of censorship to destroy and defame any voice against the establishment narratives. We are also seeing disturbing news in recent reports by the Centers for Disease Control that youth suicides and homicides for 2022 were at an all-time high. Added to more than 100,000 deaths annually from overdoses and the flood of fentanyl and crystal meth pouring across our open southern border, we are starting to look at a generation of young Americans with nothing to live for.
No wonder we are seeing a volcano getting ready to erupt.
Who then will be our next president, the individual we will be asking to face this mess?
It is hard to believe that Donald Trump can win an election from prison, seeing that there is no legal mechanism to free him at present from his legal calamities, deserved or not. The Democrats appear to be moving California Governor Gavin Newsom to the starting line. A recent poll by Rasmussen Reports says that 36 percent of Democratic Party voters favor Newsom. But Newsom has no electoral history at the national level, is identified with California’s multiple crises of homelessness and crime, and would be viewed as a “consolation prize” for erstwhile Biden backers. I would assess his chances as not much more than the Rasmussen figure.
The most credible candidate remaining on either side may be Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., whose standing is rising daily. Even though only about 20 percent of Democratic voters favor him over Biden, his numbers will rise dramatically as Biden fades into oblivion. Kennedy’s hopes are similar to his father’s in 1968, starting with no perceived chance against Lyndon Johnson or Hubert Humphrey but close to becoming the front-runner when he was assassinated. The Biden administration is courting such an eventuality by denying Kennedy Secret Service protection, but I assess they’ll fail at this particular dirty trick.
While until now the mainstream media have dumped on RFK, Jr. big-time, that may be changing. He just got his first indication of mainstream support in a recent Forbes article on his economic program. He is reaching large audiences with his Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson interviews. He is showing himself a serious candidate with his measured stance on stopping the Ukraine war and skepticism about COVID-related policy. His vow to rebuild the American middle class is a meaningful, realistic goal that has the potential for traction. His stance on the issues is showing appeal to Republican voters looking for an alternative to Trump.
Meanwhile, Cornel West’s third-party candidacy threatens to do to a Democrat what Ralph Nader did to Al Gore in 2000 and Jill Stein to Hillary Clinton in 2016. But Kennedy, with his bipartisan appeal, would likely be immune to losing votes to West.
Further, if the Democratic establishment decided to go for Newsom or for any 2020 retreads like Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, or Pete Buttigieg, it would be difficult to deny the candidates a debate forum or meaningful primaries. I believe that Kennedy would clean Newsom’s clock if and when that happens.
I believe we can make an assessment of a 40-50 percent chance at present of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., winning the Democratic Party nomination. If he does, I would assess his chances of winning the presidency at 90 percent.
As a newly-elected president and head of what would have to be a national unity government, Kennedy could then take the high road by negotiating pardons for both Biden and Trump, similar to the way President Jimmy Carter made his first official action in 1977 an executive order pardoning all Vietnam era draft dodgers.
Please note that I am not making this assessment as a partisan supporter of RFK, Jr. I am making it as an independent analyst looking at the data and drawing what appear to be logical conclusions. Of course, I do have a bias, which is that the catastrophe facing the U.S. today may have solutions. I could be wrong.