Juan Cole Informed Comment
The new Mecca Defense Pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signals a regional response to the new insecurity in the region provoked by the Israeli-US attack on Iran and by the Iranian response. The Iranian response has been to hold the Gulf Arab oil and gas states hostage. But the initial Israeli-US attack on February 28 was also seen as a profound betrayal of these states’ security by the Trump administration, since it was foreseeable that an all-out assault on Iran would roil the Strait of Hormuz.
The tripartite alliance brings enormous strengths to the table. Saudi Arabia has trillions of dollars in reserves and its sovereign investment fund. Al Jazeera points out that Türkiye has an advanced defense industry. Pakistan has a big, experienced military with lots of operational experience. Saudi Arabia wants to expand its arms industry. Al Jazeera does not add that Islamabad has a nuclear arsenal and an advanced fighter jet manufacturing capability (joint with China) of its own.
The pact is symbolic and is aimed both at Israel and at Iran, though Saudi Arabia views Israel as the bigger existential threat. Israel’s behavior since 2023 has convinced Riyadh that it seeks to dominate the region with aggressive regional forever wars, from which Saudi Arabia is not immune. Nor does Riyadh believe it could depend on the erratic Donald Trump to protect its interests were Israel to attack it.
The agreement probably does not commit Türkiye and Pakistan to intervene in the struggle between Yemen’s Helpers of God government and the Saudis, though it appears to use NATO-like language that an attack on one is an attack on all. Nor is it likely that either Ankara or Islamabad will go to war with Iran for Saudi Arabia.
Rather, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are probably seeking a Pakistani nuclear umbrella against Israeli attacks. Belligerent Israeli politicians have increasing hinted around about attacking Türkiye despite its membership in NATO. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called Türkiye under President Tayyip Erdogan “the new Iran” and Likud Party parliamentarian Ariel Kellner publicly branded Türkiye as an “enemy state for all intents and purposes.” Moreover, Israel bombed Doha, Qatar, the next door neighbor of Saudi Arabia, while also having bombed Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, raising fears in the kingdom that it was vulnerable to increasingly reckless Israeli use of its air power.
Not only does Pakistan have nukes but it manufactures domestically an advanced fighter jet, the JF-17 Thunder, which it has sold to countries such as Bangladesh. The design is licensed from China, and the jets acquitted themselves well against French Dassault Rafales in fighting against India. Meanwhile Turkiye is licensed to build F-16s and is trying to make its own stealth fighter, an equivalent to the F-35. And it may get actual F-35s from Trump , and so might Saudi Arabia.
Mecca Defense Pact. Mapchart
Saudi Arabia likely wants to manufacture its own advanced weapons, as well, and this pact will better place it to receive help in this arena from Pakistan and Türkiye.
In the past half-decade, Israel has emerged as the preeminent air power in the Middle East, able to strike neighbors and the entire region at will and to use its anti-missile systems to protect its population from reprisals. Although this adventurism has met with a check from Iran, few other countries in the area have Iran’s drone and missile capabilities.
It has been objected to me when I’ve made this argument that Pakistan cannot really be relied on to spread its nuclear umbrella over countries such as Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. My reply is that since the 1950s, the prevailing nuclear doctrine is Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). You have no choice but to take an announced nuclear umbrella seriously, since your whole civilization is at stake. Israel is now highly unlikely to try to do to Riyadh or Ankara what it did to Doha. And that is the point of this pact.