H. Patricia Hynes Informed Comment
No longer can we conceive of the climate crisis as an issue solely of higher temperatures and extreme storms, without also centering on the cascade of its fatal effects on vital ecosystems. First, among these may be the death of ancient, magnificentcoral reefs and the vast marine life dependent on them, causing severe human and environmental health impacts. Further, these lethal effects are distinct potential points of no return, called tipping points, and they threaten the entire planet.
The world is on track for reaching a temperature of 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7º F.) above the preindustrial norm by 2050, according to Climate Action Tracker – a dire scenario “ imperiling livable futures.” The target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to reign in climate warming was 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7º F). But already the three hottest years in human history taken together (2023-2025) have exceeded a 3-year average of 1.5 degrees Celsius, and news is dire for the next 2 years when the strongest El Nino ever recorded is predicted. A strong El Nino “could drive the average global temperature to 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2°F) above the preindustrial level” with extreme consequences for people and the planet.
Why are we in this ominous predicament? Solid blame goes to the ongoing growth of fossil fuel production and use: in India, China (despite leading the world by far in electric cars), Indonesia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United States and many other countries. Worse yet, the United States is not only expanding oil and gas production but is intentionally shutting down offshore wind projects, cutting renewable energy incentives, denying climate science and terminating climate science research. (Trump feeds the interminable malignancy of the fossil fuel industry.) To the privileged fossil fuel industries, add the plastics industry whose plans are to accelerate plastic production, their source being fossil fuels, as renewable technologies eventually phase out fossil fuels for electricity.
BOGA or Beyond Oil and Gas is an alliance of several countries which have committed to phasing out fossil fuels. Led by Denmark and Costa Rica, BOGA members include France, Greenland, Ireland, Portugal, Quebec, Tuvalu, Sweden, Wales, and Washington State. Cynics counter that these countries have no fossil fuel reserves. For some of the countries, this is true, but others such as Ireland, Greenland, and Portugal have chosen to leave their reserves of oil and gas undeveloped. Denmark is committed to ending all future exploration and cancelled their latest round of permits.
But members of BOGA together account for 30 percent of oil and gas using countries; and we need immediate, more radical and inclusive measures sooner than they promise in order to slow and reverse the climate Armageddon. The Earth cannot wait.
Coral reefs are vibrant, complex habitats that exist in warm and shallow tropical waters and support a quarter of all marine life. Corals are some of the most diverse lifeforms on Earth, comprising vast varieties of coral polyps with their algae partners, thousands of fish species, and numerous invertebrates like crabs, shrimp, and giant clams. Having “experienced unprecedented dieback” due to surging global temperatures, especially since 2023, they may be the first of Earth’s tipping points. Their tipping point is 1.2 degrees Celsius while the Earth exceeded a 3-year average of 1.5 degrees Celsius over the past 3 years. This impact is far beyond destruction of coral reefs solely. Nearly a million species of marine animals depend on living coral reefs; more than a billion people’s livelihoods depend on coral reefs for fisheries, tourism and other marine industries. Failing coral reefs will lose their capacity to protect coasts against ocean surges, deprive fish of reproductive habitats and obliterate the reef tourism industry.
Climate scientists warn that we must immediately reduce fossil fuel emissions to 1.2 degrees Celsius to save coral reefs; but realistic scientists know that lethargic governments won’t reduce the Earth’s temperature quickly enough. This is the death knell for a large majority of the world’s magnificent reef communities.
Only recently have we had breaking news of some tropical reefs that that “possess an extraordinary ability to endure” even as a majority of reefs are dying or dead not only because of climate-driven heat, but also ocean acidification, sewage, industrial pollution, etc..
These Super Reefs are being studied by a team, led by Dr. Anne Cohen of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute where she has created the Super Reefs initiative. This initiative will identify surviving coral strongholds and governments vested in creating marine-protected areas from human activity. Time is not on her side, but her idea is; and her efforts will spread Super Reefs to where others have died.
Positive tipping points are also proceeding: solar panels, battery storage, electric cars, regenerative agriculture, but not yet at the rate to reverse the juggernaut of climate destruction.
Coda
While in Indonesia many years ago with my partner to attend her conference on trafficking in women, we asked a man with a sailboat to take us to a nearby coral reef to snorkel around it. Despite a ripped sail, he got us quickly to a reef. After we finished snorkeling, we noticed that a just-arrived oil tanker was unloading its oil nearby on the shore – the plight of many coral reefs.
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